Grim outlook for 2008?

Posted by Evan Fell on December 7, 2007 at 10:30 AM
Newspaper publishers and analysts seem to now be saying next year will probably be just as tough for the troubled industry as 2007.
McClatchy and E.W. Scripps both issued negative revenue and earnings forecasts. McClatchy didn't give a specific number, but it predicted a revenue decline in the single digits, which Wall Street analysts predicted will be 5.4%.

Scripps plans to separate its newspaper and television businesses are due in part to poor performance on the newspaper side.

Media General and The Washington Post Co. both have predicted revenue drops in 2008.

Overall, according to a recent survey of 15 executives at private newspaper companies by Deutsche Bank analyst Paul Ginocchio shows that executives believe revenue will slip by 1.5% in 2008.

Ken Doctor,
an analyst with Outsell, Inc., said: "The decline in print advertising and print circulation, combined, have a kind of pinball effect, where print advertising and print circulation revenues are reinforcing each other's decline."

Doctor than talks about online saying "While substantial, it's insufficient to make up for the print and circulation revenue declines. The problem for the industry is that it hasn't grown out of its legacy print business quickly enough. It needed to move from print to digital much more quickly.”

Although not all have this grim outlook for the papers. Many media companies said they hope to bring even more readers and ad spending to their Web sites with expanded offerings of news, advertising and video in 2008. Many media companies are also focusing on other businesses to fall back on.

Donald Graham
, CEO of The Washington Post Co. said as the presidential election approaches, his company was hopeful about expanding its audience online. However, the Kaplan education businesses will probably be the biggest source of revenue for the company next year.

Chris Hendricks, head of online operations at McClatchy Co. said the company's 0.8% growth in online ad revenue in the year-to-date period through October was "disappointing," but said McClatchy was optimistic about converting more of its online traffic into ad dollars next year.

Part of that optimism comes from their deal with Yahoo.

Gannett Co.
, the number one newspaper publisher, also has a significant broadcasting business, which is "very well positioned" for political advertising spending in 2008 thanks to strong ratings for local news and a host of stations in markets with contested races, Gannett's broadcasting chief Dave Lougee said.

Sue Clark-Johnson, the chief of Gannett's newspaper division, said that Gannett-owned newspaper Web sites were on track to post a 32 percent gain in page views this calendar year.

There is no doubt that 2007 was not a great year for the newspaper industry, but what will 2008 bring?

Source: The Associated Press through Ifra Executive News Service
          Media Daily News
 







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