Print ad sales to drop to $44.5 billion?

Posted by Ben Thalman on May 29, 2007 at 4:09 PM

Print advertising may be ready to drop by about $2 billion, falling from $46.6 in 2006 to $44.5 this year. This projection comes on the heels of a 6.4% drop in print ad sales in the first quarter of 2007. Included in this decline is a 13.2% drop in classified revenues. 

This negative outlook for 2007 is based on Alan Mutter’s projections; Mutter is a managing partner at Tapit Partners- a company involved with new media. Mutter argues that, in addition to battling the Internet for advertising dollars, print media must cope with changes in buyers’ and sellers’ behavior.

Mutter points out that the print advertising numbers which, he argues, will be experienced by print media are close to those experienced after 9/11. In comparing the downturn following 9/11 to the proposed upcoming downturn, Mutter says: “it would occur in an era of economic well being characterized by low unemployment, respectable retail sales (until this nasty April) and record highs in the stock market.” He adds: “The setback, if it materializes, would be unprecedented for an industry that, until recently, has been masterful at increasing its revenues in good times and bad.”

According to a survey by PriceWaterhouseCoopers, Internet advertising revenues increased from $1.9 billion in 1998 to $16.7 billion in 2006. Mutter points out that the decline in print advertising in 2005 coincides to a strong increase in Internet advertising – from 2002 to 2005 Internet advertising grew from $6 billion to $12.5 billion.

In addition to the clear effects of internet advertising on print advertising, Mutter also points out the effects of changing behaviors of marketers and consumers. Mutter uses the automotive industry as an example: “Classified auto advertising in newspapers, which slid 20.1% in the first quarter to $751k, has become less relevant now that more than two-thirds of auto buyers spend five or more hours shopping for cars on the Internet, including considerable time at specialized auto sites and those of car manufacturers.”

Source: newsosaur through ifra
 

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