The Independent surveyed the first week of Associated Newspapers and News International's brutal fight for the king of evening giveaways from the battleground itself: Central London. The paper claims that distributors of Associated's London Lite outnumbered those of NI's thelondonpaper by significant amounts in the area.

This is interesting because NI dedicated 700 staff to hand out the paper, 200 more than Associated, but spread them out over a broader area. If these distribution logistics are maintained, it could mean that perhaps there is room for two afternoon freesheets in the city, a prospect that some have balked at.

Vendors of the Evening Standard, for well over a century a permanent fixture of London, complained that their sales were already down from 10% to one-third meaning that predictions that the now 50p paper will eventually fold could come true.  

In the end, however, the Indy says, "Nobody, apart from makers of purple T-shirts, has made any money," referring to the attire of the distributors of both papers and the assumption that it will take years for either paper to turn a profit.

The Guardian, on the other hand, predicts that all print papers could eventually be free. The thesis: "in the next ten years canny media operators who know what advertisers want will identify any readers that are paying for their papers and try to lure them to a free rival. Established operators will respond by doing the only thing possible: going free themselves."

The writer goes through a lot of general math to conclude that such an idea is sustainable for quality journalism, as long as the free papers work to push their readers to the Internet. Beginning with a high volume of free print papers of which advertising rates will be high, driving readers to websites will allow publishers to begin to raise their online ad rates while simultaneously beginning to scale down production of the print paper, which is a huge expense; "As soon as you give up paper all together you will be very, very profitable."

Sources: The Independent, The Guardian