Another analysis burying the newspaper
An article by Jemima Kiss at journalism.co.uk entitled "Newspapers: an industry in crisis" and based on last week's workshop of the Cambridge-MIT Institute's Digital Technologies project, not only declares the printed word dead, but continues to slam newspapers' attempts at adapting themselves to the internet. Although Ms. Kiss makes a couple of good points, her "predictions of doom" can be discussed. First the good points:
1. "Management teams that are unwilling or unable to understand the internet environment" - One of the representatives at Cambridge last week commented that newspapers' resistance to change 'borders on pathological' and that the entire industry is in 'profound denial' about its problems. Because of these problems with their management, website teams have not been permitted to take full advantage of the opportunities the internet provides. At a higher level, Ms. Kiss says that newspaper executives are lost when it comes to the purpose of the web, asking themselves, "So it doesn't make money, and it's not a back up for the newspaper?"
2. "... most site traffic will be generated by syndicated news content... To remain competitive, sites will have to provide versatile news for a wide variety of platforms" - RSS and aggregators will certainly become more influential as recognition of their convenience spreads. Although it may sound contradictory, these technologies pander to the needs of niche markets on a universal level, meaning information about very specific topics from sources around the globe can now be easily compiled to satisfy a reader's needs, a phenomenon previously next to impossible, if not unimaginable. In order to maximize readership potential, newspapers will have to branch out to cater to these interests, something facilitated immensely by the internet.
And now for our problems with her arguments:
1. Not only is she naught to mention rising and steady circulations of printed newspapers in several parts of the world, notably Asia, but she hardly mentions printed versions at all. She briefly makes reference to tabloid formats, but dismisses their present popularity as ephemeral, "an attempt to wring as much value for as long as possible from the print edition." Compacts in Ms. Kiss' native Britain have proved successful at attracting readers and advertisers are following suit. News that papers in the United States may make the move to compacts further reinforces their positive impact on the industry.
2. News websites will become increasingly successful, not fall off the face of the internet.
Content: Quality journalism will always drive the information industry. Major news organizations will continue to seek out the finest writers and editors to give the public up to the minute news as well as in depth reports, something that companies such as Google and Yahoo, who don't specialize in news, will never be able to provide. Their respective news sites are simply compilations of this quality news.
Business: In recent years, major websites such as The New York Times have begun to turn a profit with their online ventures. They have already begun to diversify their RSS feeds, are adding links for immediate deeper investigation, and are beginning to include their readers with blogs. Ms. Kiss again brushes aside these facts saying "the plan for newspaper websites seems to be to enjoy the boom in online advertising for as long as it lasts." First off, if online advertising is just a fad, as Ms. Kiss implies, then most of the internet will come to a screeching halt with the fad's abrupt end. Secondly, as more readers, especially the young, turn to the web for news, respected brands will easily attract more advertisers. Furthermore, local news websites, especially in the United States, are flourishing with the incorporation of citizens media and are frequently the best if not the only means of advertising for local businesses, not exactly a defining them as fleeting.
It's the Editors Weblog belief that many critics in the media industry are jumping the gun on the predicted end of what is to remain a pertinent and powerful media force.
Source: journalism.co.uk
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And now for my problems with your problems with her arguments:
1. Not only is she naught to mention rising and steady circulations of printed newspapers in several parts of the world, notably Asia, but she hardly mentions printed versions at all.
And now for my problems with your problems with her arguments:
1. Yes, circulation has risen in those nations (notably Asian) that have recently industrialized. I’m sure that the market for indoor plumbing in those nations has risen, too. But your examples divert attention from the fact that circulation is steadily plummeting in the countries that have long been industrialized -- such as North American and Western European nations and Japan. The extremities of the newspaper industry are healthy but its mature core is ill.
2. Any circulation increases due to broadsheets converting to tabloid formats are but brief upticks amid steadily declines. Do you really think that those circulations will now steadily increase? Do you really think that format changes will solve the problems? I don’t. Those broadsheets should have gone compact long ago.
3. The verdict is far from clear that newspaper websites will become successful. Though many daily newspapers have attracted large numbers of monthly online readers, the data shows that those numbers -- except in rare cases-- are a fraction of the numbers who read the equivalent newsprint editions. The industry has spent billions creating online editions that are read by fewer people, less frequently and less fully than the print editions that are declining in circulation. Nor have those online helped newspapers attract younger readers; the average ages online and in print are the same. (http://www.ojr.org/ojr/business/1078349998.php)
4. Carefully consider your example that The New York Times’ has begun to turn a profit with their online ventures. That’s after publishing it for ten years in the fasted growing medium in history. If it’s taken that long a premier title such as the NYT that long to become cash-flow positive, how long will it take the average daily newspaper? Moreover, a 2002 study by Borrell Associates of 245 U.S. newspaper websites found that half those sites’ revenues were simply accounting transfers from print editions.
5. Ms. Kiss didn’t imply that online advertising is a fad. She implied that there is a fad among newspaper executives to take credit for building ‘successful’ websites when all that’s actually happening is the rising tide of online advertising is floating all boats, even the leaky web vessels of newspapers.
6. Care to show any data at all that “local news websites, especially in the United States, are flourishing with the incorporation of citizens media”? I know of none. The topic of ‘citizens media’ certainly is flourishing among U.S. newspaper website executives, but whether ‘citizens media’ turns out to be gold or just a ‘Pet Rock’ fad remains to be seen.
7. Although it is “the Editors Weblog belief that many critics in the media industry are jumping the gun on the predicted end of what is to remain a pertinent and powerful media force”, the data are the bullets and those critics are merely pulling the trigger. The industry can deny the threat, but denial won’t disarm the reality of the data’s impact.
p.s.: Pardon the data hiccup in my previous post; it's the result of using a public Internet terminal while traveling.
The opinions in this article aren't mine - but the combined observations and comments from a wide number of editors. They were nearly all from the UK and US, which explains why Asian trends weren't covered.
I can't say exactly who attended - but you name them, they were there.
For what it's worth, my own opinion is that printed newspapers will continue on a much smaller scale by becoming more feature-orientated and with bigger, bolder visuals. That's based on my own newspaper consumption which is only ever when I'm lounging around at the weekend trying not to use a computer.
Quality content is always valuable, but newspaper sites will have to work much harder to stay 'alive'. They'll have to up their game considerably to keep up with web-only sites - and sort out their design, their usability and their technical proficiency. And stop trying to mimic newspapers both in terms of their design and their business models. But that's just my opinion.
I believe two trends underpin the decline in newspaper circulations, especially in the West. The first is the decline of a reading culture; the second is the decline in trust in newspapers (and most other civil institutions).
You all probably know the arguments for and against better than I, but when I look at the media consumption habits of 16-30 year-olds, using the newspapers to find out what's going on in the world is not their priority.
TV is also at risk when advertisers like Proctor & Gamble shift their budgets into "experience-based encounters", word of mouth, and "viral" campaigns.
The thing is, there are fewer and fewer compelling reasons to buy a newspaper. The question is, what are you going to do about that?